Will the Housing Market Maintain Its Momentum?

4/27/2021

Last week’s Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows sales have dropped by 3.7% compared to the month before. This is the second consecutive month that sales have slumped. Some see this as evidence that the red-hot real estate market may be cooling. However, there could also be a simple explanation as to why existing home sales have slowed--there aren’t enough homes to buy. There are currently 410,000 fewer single-family homes available for sale than there were at this time last year.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains in the report:

“The sales for March would have been measurably higher, had there been more inventory. Days-on-market are swift, multiple offers are prevalent, and buyer confidence is rising.”

Yun’s insight was supported the next day when the Census Bureau released its Monthly New Residential Sales Report. It shows that newly constructed home sales are up 20.7% over the previous month.

Buyer demand remains strong. With more of the adult population becoming vaccinated and job creation data showing encouraging signs, existing-home inventory is expected to grow in the coming months.

What will this mean for home sales going forward?

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have all forecasted that total home sales (existing homes and new construction) will continue their momentum both this year and next. Here’s a graph showing those projections:

Bar Graph: Strong Home Sales Forecasted for this Year and 2022. 2020 Total Home Sales: 6.5M. 2021 forecasts: Fannie Mae--6.9M; Freddie Mac--7.1M; MBA--7.3M. 2022 forecasts: Fannie Mae--6.5M; Freddie Mac--6.7M; MBA--7.5M.

Bottom line

Living through a pandemic has caused many to re-evaluate the importance of a home and the value of homeownership. The residential real estate market will benefit from both as we move forward.

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Cogent Real Estate Equities, LLC does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Cogent Real Estate Equities, LLC will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.

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